David Shaw, The Fighting Irish, And Opening Day: Locking In Some More Bets

David Shaw, The Fighting Irish, And Opening Day: Locking In Some More Bets

Blog > Let's Parlay > David Shaw, The Fighting Irish, And Opening Day: Locking In Some More Bets

David Shaw, The Fighting Irish, And Opening Day: Locking In Some More Bets

Let's Parlay has a few more wagers to consider as sports betting becomes legal in the Hoosier state.

 

The day has arrived. Three Indiana sportsbooks (Indiana Grand in Shelbyville, Ameristar Casino in East Chicago, and Hollywood Casino in Lawrenceburg) are now open for business, with many more prepared to begin accepting wagers in a matter of days. This means you need to physically be at one of the three locations above in order to place a bet this afternoon.

 

You’ll have to ditch your comfy sofa and the half-eaten bag of cheddar and sour cream Ruffles for this. But hey, showering is optional! Body odor and secondhand smoke. Everyone’s two favorite scents, both in one place. Marketing.

 

Hey, football happened yesterday. It gave us some great moments, wild finishes, and a few upsets. Well, just one big one. Thanks for your contributions, Tennessee. A ‘Rocky Top’ beginning, indeed; emphasis on ‘Rocky’. Meanwhile, today and Monday present a couple of good betting opportunities in the college ranks. But first, a Stanford story…

Moneymaker David Shaw

Not all bets are created equal. I’m sure you’ve figured this out by now, but I’m here to hammer it home. Enter David Shaw’s Stanford Cardinal. Since Shaw took over as head coach for Jim Harbaugh in 2011, the year of Andrew Luck’s senior campaign, Stanford has gone an incredible 65-41-2 ATS, or against the spread (meaning they covered the spread in 65 out of 108 total games, with 2 ties). That equates to a win percentage of roughly 61.3%. This may not seem like an impressive number, but it’s just shy of 9% higher than what profitable bettors look to achieve on this type of wager (52.4%).

 

Oh, there’s more? Even with Luck’s final season in Palo Alto factored in, every one of Shaw’s 8 years saw the Cardinal finish with an ATS record of at least .500. See the table below for a full year-by-year analysis:

 

Stanford betting history ATS

 

2013-14 is the only season “flat betting” (wagering the same amount of money on each game) Stanford against the spread didn’t result in profit. Yesterday’s wild ending has the 2019 Cardinal ATS looking great once again…

 

Folks, that’s what we call a “bad beat”. Stanford was favored at -6.5, so that last second touchdown was the decider.

 

More on flat betting historical ATS to come. We’ll take a look at the Temple Owls, another school with an unusually high cover percentage, and the concept of “line shopping” in order to maximize returns in these rare situations.

Here Come The Irish

We’re closing in on a decade of Notre Dame football under the leadership of head coach Brian Kelly. After a trip to the College Football Playoff a season ago, the Irish are positioned for another deep run if all goes according to plan. The schedule sets up well from a résumé standpoint, with road contests at Michigan and Georgia and a late-November trip to Stanford. None of that matters if they can’t take care of business in Week 1, which is what we’re here to talk about.

 

Some of the names you’ll hear on a consistent basis come Labor Day:

 

Quarterback, Ian Book

Safety, Alohi Gilman

Defensive end, Julian Okwara

 

The Irish return an impact player in almost every position group, with the exception of linebacker and, arguably, cornerback. Edge pass rushing will be a huge strength, along with one of the nation’s best safety pairings in Gilman and Jalen Elliott. The former statement is bad news for Louisville: they have trouble blocking. The Cards gave up more than 3 sacks per game in 2018, the third-worst average in the FBS.

 

This team is a far chirp cry from the Lamar Jackson-led Redbirds. On the bright side, Louisville graduated just 12 seniors, so experience is a major plus with this roster. The switch to a 3-4 base defense under new coordinator Bryan Brown could light a spark, but any change in scheme takes some time getting used to. Scott Satterfield will be tasked with turning this 2-10 program around, and it won’t be easy.

 

Just because a school’s overall record is well below par doesn’t mean they weren’t close to covering the spread in losing efforts. So did Vegas account for Louisville’s atrocious play last year? Nope. They were 1-11 ATS. Ouch. More reason to load up on ND here.

 

The Irish are hungry for a repeat of 2018, and won’t let a rebuilding Cardinals get in their way. Even considering Louisville’s horrendous ATS record, I could see them giving Kelly’s bunch trouble in the first quarter. However, the strength and talent discrepancy will show as the minutes tick away and Notre Dame should cover -18. In fact, the Irish have covered the spread in all but one season opener since 2014, an outright loss to the Texas Longhorns.

 

Bet: $20 on Notre Dame @ -18 (-110) to win $18.18

 

Also Bet: $30 on Houston Over 28 points scored (-105) to win $28.57

 

The Cougars return a potent offensive passing attack, welcome in coach Dana Holgorsen from West Virginia, and face last season’s worst pass defense in Oklahoma. They haven’t scored fewer than 31 points in a regular season game since 2017. Enough said.

 

“If lessons are learned in defeat, our team is getting a great education.” -Murray Warmath

 

 

 

Title Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images

 

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