INDIANAPOLIS – Even as the Colts sat with a 5-2 record at this point of last season, Chris Ballard was a bit skeptical.
He knew his team was playing with fire in surviving so many one-possession games.
In starting 5-2 last year, the Colts had a point differential of just plus 7—a number that Ballard referenced at the close of the 2019 campaign, as his team wilted down the stretch in finishing 7-9.
“That’s an answer we have to figure out,” Ballard said at the end of 2019 when asked about sustaining the 5-2 start. “I remember sitting there at 5-2 thinking, ‘We’ve got a pretty good football team. But I also knew we had won some really tight games. Usually that pops back around on you and you don’t always win those out. Point differential is big. I always look at it. I think we were plus 8 or 9 at one point, always hovering right in that middle area. We were winning tight games and then in the second half of the season, we weren’t winning those tight games, whether it was a failure offensively, or a failure in the kicking game, or a failure defensively. In each of those tough losses, something would go wrong that we would not make a play. We are a process and people driven organization. That’s how we are. I thought sometimes we got focused too much on the outcome. That’s my fault.
“At the end of the day, you are 5-2 and you start looking at, ‘Wow, we are going to make the playoffs. No, it’s got to be about the next game.’ Frank is not this way. He’s a great process-oriented person. That’s his thought process. I think you could hear a little chatter of 5-2, we’ve beaten a very good Kansas City team, a playoff team in Tennessee on the road, we beat Houston, who is a really good football team, so we’ve beaten three of the top teams in the AFC and if you don’t continue to grind and take care of the little things each and every week, it’ll bite you. I don’t want to be a momentum team, a momentum organization. You start over every week. You are 0-0 every week, even after the season. We are starting over and evaluating everything. I think we just got caught up in the momentum of being 5-2.”
So, with the Colts again at 5-2, but with an eye-popping point differential of plus 62 (5th best in the NFL), how should fans be feeling?
Reasons For Hope
-Vastly Improved Defense: Unquestionably, this is the best difference from the 2019 Colts to the 2020 Colts. Hello, DeForest Buckner, Xavier Rhodes, Julian Blackmon and further evolvement from Matt Eberflus. The Colts are better in every important defensive statistical category. The run defense is allowing a full 1.5 yards per carry less this season (3.4 YPC, which ranks 2nd in the NFL). They are taking the ball away at a higher rate (5 more turnovers this season), which was something Ballard really stressed at that end of the season presser in 2019. Yes, the opposing offenses are about to get much tougher, but the Colts have played January-type defense and the arrival of Kemoko Turay this month could give them even another level of play.
–Better Quarterback Play: Jacoby Brissett had some nice moments in the Colts starting 5-2 last year. But the Colts are definitely getting better quarterback play this season. It’s not drastically better (so far), but it’s better. Philip Rivers is completing passes at a higher rate (69.1% vs. 64.2%), and still producing many more big plays (7.4 yards per pass attempt vs. 6.4). Considering the lack of a run game supporting Rivers (see more below), the Colts have received improved QB play for an offense that has needed to put more on the plate of that position than they thought entering this season.
–Winning Special Teams Unit: Let’s not have recency bias here. Yes, the Colts were awful on special teams against the Lions, but that was such an anomaly compared to the rest of 2020. The Colts have largely been outstanding on special teams. They’ve controlled field position and received pretty steady kicking from rookie Rodrigo Blankenship. Last year, ineptness at placekicking had the Colts in so many one-possession games. The Colts needed to see improvement from this unit after last season and they’ve received it in multiple areas.
Reasons For Concern
-Rushing Performance: Easily the biggest disappointment lies with Frank Reich’s biggest mantra. The Colts have been pitiful in running the football this season. They are averaging 3.5 yards per carry (4.2 last year), which ranks last in the NFL. While the Colts produced run games of 203, 180, 167 and 127 yards in starting 5-2 last season, they’ve had just 1 game over 120 yards this season (151 against Minnesota). And those big rushing performances early last season came during the course of close games. The Colts have had chances to pad their rushing stats in 4th quarters this season, but that still hasn’t led to comparable rushing numbers. Despite a healthy offensive line, the Colts have struggled with Marlon Mack on IR. This must change for the Colts to do some damage in January.
–Schedule Strength: No team has played an easier schedule this season than the Colts. That’s about to change. The Colts will play 6 of their final 9 games against teams currently in the playoffs or just a half game out (the Raiders). The other three games are all in the division: Houston twice and Jacksonville. Last year at this time, the Colts had won in Kansas City, beat Houston and the Titans (albeit with Marcus Mariota at QB). Of the 13 teams with positive point differentials in the NFL right now, the Colts haven’t played a single one of them. The tests are about to be totally different the rest of the season.
Overall Thoughts: In my opinion, fans should have more confidence in this 5-2 team not bottoming out like last year’s squad did. Having said that, the difference in schedule strength is no joke, and you still worry about this offense having enough firepower to withstand shootouts. It would be an extreme disappointment if the Colts failed to make the playoffs in 2020—you have an extra playoff slot this season and the AFC doesn’t have great depth in the middle part of the conference. So that should be different in how the Colts close out this season. Winning a game, or more, in the postseason? That can’t be determined until we see the Colts against better competition.
